The Gathering Storm

Gentleman Gustaf here to bring you mathcrafting on the first new item designed for Ranged AD Carries: Runaans Hurricane. When looking at any item, I think there are three things to consider.

  1. Its role/purpose. What is this purpose? Is it an important purpose? Is it an optimal purpose?
  2. Its potence. Does it accomplish this purpose? Is it math efficient? What is the result?
  3. Its synergy. Does it synergize well with other expected strategies? Does it force a new playstyle?

Today, I'll be going through everything about Runaans Hurricane, and ultimately, giving it the thumbs up or thumbs down.

 

Purpose

What is the purpose of Runaans Hurricane?

Quote from Xypherous

Hurricane allows your ranged basic attacks to fire secondary bolts at nearby targets. These bolts cannot critically strike but can trigger your other on-hit effects, such as Varus’ Blighted Quiver in the above example. This allows characters like Varus or Miss Fortune, already strong Area of Effect damage dealers, to specialize into Area of Effect damage if they’d like to do so.

So first, is this an important purpose? Well, AoE damage is very strong, and many teams run strategies heavily built around AoE damage. For example, Miss Fortune has been growing in popularity recently, and is incredibly strong because of her mid-game team fight contribution, and her ability to use her ult from very far away to avoid aggro, especially in conjunction with other AoE CC/damage. And AoE damage is very important to have a strong amount of: It relies on being able to stack to burst people down: if your AoE damage doesn't pose an immediate threat to the other team, you could end up losing a team fight simply on account of lack of focus.

So does this item fulfill its purpose optimally, at least as far as theorycrafting goes? I think so. It is consistent damage onto targets, which means you don't risk using it prematurely. Moreover, this means it can be used very well as cleanup in those fights where you do fail to burst their team down. There is one scary downside, and that is lacking single-target damage to focus targets down. Normally, this role is filled by the AD Carry in AoE comps, and your ability to do so is hurt somewhat by this item. But overall, I give it an A for creativity, and a B+ for theoretical usefulness. So as far as its role and purpose, I give it a tip of the hat and a pinky out. But how does it look on paper?

The Fun Part (Math)

First, let's get some assumptions out of the way. According to the information released by Xypherous, the item works as follows:

Quote from Xypherous

Hurricane triggers each time you attack.
Hurricane is not an on-hit proc, nor does it trigger off of spells or abilities like Mystic Shot or Double Up that apply on-hit effects.
Hurricane deals 50% of your total attack damage.
Hurricane applies the full effect of on-hit effects with each bolt.

Your dps looks something like this:

Woah! Now that's a doozy of a formula, but essentially it means the following. Attack 1 target with your crit damage, attack the rest of the targets without critting and at half damage, and apply your on-hit effects in full. So we can see that champions who benefit a lot from crit won't benefit much from this, but champions with on-hit effects will love this item a lot. This is the first thing that worries me about this item. It's designed to help AoE champs itemize for AoE, but it actually benefits champions with strong on-hit effects the most. Kog'Maw called, and he'd like to kill the whole team at once.

Your first item was probably IE or Bloodthirster, so let's stick with that for now. To lessen the complicated nature of the math, let's remind ourselves that we're only looking at AS/Crit Chance/Crit Damage/auto attacks, so we can ignore ability damage. So here's what IE PD looks like next to IE Hurricane (for single target damage)

Ok, so in a straight up 1v1, you obviously don't like Hurricane, as it performs at about 70-80% of what PD would. But that would be scary: an AoE item that beats out single target items in single target DPS. Let's assume you hit 1 additional target:

The only champion who doesn't prefer Hurricane while hitting 2 targets is the champion who has critical strike scaling (Draven) via his passive. Those champions who are mostly physical/auto attack based don't benefit that much, with most of them only gaining about 3% in damage, a pretty big deal considering how much single target damage they lost. But the on-hit champions gain a decent amount, with Caitlyn/Corki/MF/Varus gaining about 10% dps, and Kog'Maw gaining a whopping 31%. Now let's assume best case scenario, 3 targets:

Now this item pulls ahead for every champion, and puts out an INSANE amount of dps on Kog'Maw, not to mention pretty ridiculous damage on Caitlyn/Corki/MF/Varusi. What about with BT? We see about the same numbers. It's not very awe-inspiring on one target:

Pretty good on 2 targets, but especially on Caityn/Corki/Kog/MF

And downright ludicrous on 3 targets (Kog'Maw benefits from Hurricane twice as much as from PD):

I think this a pretty strong argument for Hurricane: you get a crazy amount of damage with the full effect, and a nice buff even without the full effect. Just don't get caught in a 1v1... Since this purchase should be finished towards the end or after the laning phase, I think that's not a huge problem.

So for DPS, I give it another tip of the hat and another pinky out, and the whole table puts pinkies out for Kog'Maw with this item.

But wait, there's more! This item takes utility AD Carries and breaks them. Frost Shot? Now slows three targets. Basically, every attack is a Volley with a little less damage. Attached is a picture of hashinshin when I told him Frozen Mallet and Frost Shot would now apply to three targets at once.

Kennen and Caitlyn's every X attack passives coming up way faster? Graves getting his dash up faster? But a few cases in particular strike me as obscene.

First, Teemo's standard build has him getting Frozen Mallet and Wit's End. He will now slow 3 targets, apply the Wit's End on-hit to 3 targets, and apply his poison to three procs. With synergy like that, I might even buy Malady (jk but maybe not so I can say I called it when it becomes a thing). Second, Urgot's passive now applies to 3 targets. That's 3 targets whose damage is now decreased. Twitch now stacks true damage on loads of targets in an AoE. That's 24 true damage per second, per stack.

 

OK, so utility buffs out the wazoo for some champions, a ludicrous amount of damage from Kog'Maw, and pretty good damage on anybody with an on-hit effect or the ability to make sure to hit three targets. What does this item lack?

The Synergy

If Hurricane has any weak points, it is its lack of synergy with other typical AD Carry items and playstyles.

First, it refuses to scale with Crit Chance. Since auto attacks are multiplicative, the more items and stats you get, the more problematic this gets. But to the Kog'Maw player who now does 6% of three different target's maximum healths per hit, that's probably a very small drawback. However, the main problem I see with this item is what it does to positioning and the ability for an AD Carry to 1v1 bruisers. There are certain bruisers who can simply dive onto AD Carries (namely Irelia and Olaf and Mundo). The loss of single target damage makes it harder to deal with these champions diving you. So probably don't get it vs them.

Second, this really changes how AD Carries approach team-fights, as to maximize damage, they have to hit three targets, making their current strategy of 'attack the guy who's safest and probably far away from his team' pretty weak, which I think actually will make the item very weak against some compositions.

Overall

Creativity - A

The game doesn't really have anything like this, so it's good to see.

Damage - A

No seriously the dps on some champions will be crazy. Please don't 5-man dive the Kog if his team has AoE CC. Speaking of AoE CC it will be great with this item on your AD Carry

Utility - It depends

Doesn't bring any utility of its own, but amplifies any utility the AD Carry already has. And I guess you lose some lifesteal.

Practicality - B

Requires a whole new type of positioning which may not be safe, depending on your allied and enemy team composition. Bust out the AoE CC and Spray and Pray (oh god wait does it apply to that, too?).

Execution - C

We meant to buff AoE ADs, and instead, we buffed on-hit ADs, especially Kog'Maw.

Synergy - It depends

Do you have an on-hit effect? Well then enjoy synergy and maybe build on-hit if that's what you're into. But do you like Crit Chance/lifesteal/Armor Pen like most AD Carries? Sorry, you're sort of left out in the cold

Overall - B+

You know what I actually think this item actually is? It's basically that unique build path so many people have always wanted on Kog'Maw/Teemo; the one that used to have Madred's Bloodrazor in it and made everybody sad. Except instead of single target brutality, it brings the AoE pain. And it maybe breaks utility on some champions.

So what champions do I like Runaan's Hurricane on?

Caitlyn - her long range will let you get 3 stacks of his headshot consistently.
Kog'Maw - long range and good on-hit ability; lack of mobility could hurt him.
Teemo - :(
Twitch - True damage everywhere
Varus - more stacks for more AoE % Health Damage (plus on-hit)

Summary from Xypherous:

Quote from Xypherous

So, if you go the typical IE/PD build with critical strikes, these secondary bolts are going to be far less than 50% of your average main attack damage.

If you go raw Hurricane / BT, builds for example - you will be life stealing more - at the cost of not taking advantage of the multiplicative power of critical strike and critical damage for the multiplicative power of Area of Effect attacks.

Basically - do you want to hit everyone a lot of times for a moderate amount of damage? Or do you want to hit one person a few times for tons of damage? But in the end, the amount you life steal actually kind of ends up to be around the same.

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Comments

  • #63 Selesnija

    Yeah loss of mobility will hit him hard.

     

  • #66 OuterRaven

    With a protect comp Kog doesn't need escapes. Plus, who needs escapes when you can just shred everything in front of you? Imagine late game Kog with this item, he can pretty much kill 3 champs at the same time in a matter of seconds.

  • #69 Dj0z

    Yet with a standard ADC build he would destroy his main target faster, and thus start killing the other 2 earlier. Why are you scared of change?

    EDIT: i think i got it, you're scared to have your favorite ADC always banned in ranked. TBH, when players will realize a standard ADC can kill faster than the kog you described, they'll ban somehting else imo. You don't even know yet what the most OP thing will be when season 3 hits the shelves. For all we know it could be Yi+Tryn+Jax permabanned because of Tiamat dude.

    Last edited by Dj0z: 11/15/2012 2:44:10 PM
  • #75 MerryLane

    If Kog really uses the new item as we ve just seen it described, he will have so many more damage output than any other standard ADC, and so soon in the game.

    Banning another ADC over kog would be pretty useless

  • #70 TreeBurrow

    Currently this item fully interacts with Kog'Maws on-hit damage... However, by the time season 3 goes live, I assume this will have changed... Maybe Kog'Maw's on-hit will be slightly reduced when not attacking the primary target, we'll have to wait and see if Riot decides to change the item specifically for the few champions who abuse it the most... All I'm saying is, nothing is guarantee'd right now, the item could be drastically changed before it goes live...

  • #72 FleurDeLiz

    Nerfherding before it even goes live?

    BE A MAN.

  • #73 TreeBurrow

    What?

  • #74 Dj0z

    Quote from TreeBurrow»

    Maybe Kog'Maw's on-hit will be slightly reduced when not attacking the primary target, we'll have to wait and see if Riot decides to change the item specifically for the few champions who abuse it the most...

    If you replace that by "use it the best", we can talk. There is no evil in having very good synergy with an item. Else they better nerf every single ad carry for being one of those who abuse IE the most, and so on. I mean what the heck, if anything new happens to work fine, it would have to be made un-fine? Where would that take the game?

    Last edited by Dj0z: 11/15/2012 6:16:46 PM
  • #77 TreeBurrow

    To an extent, yes... But if some champions can completely abuse the item and others don't gain any benefit at all from the item... Then the item isn't very balanced... So wha't I'm saying is that there are a few potential balancing issues with this item and how it interacts with Kog'maw... If Kog'maw becomes OP with this item (Which in it's current state will happen) then he'll either be perma-banned because his damage output would be brokenly high, much higher than any other AD carry... That's not healthy for the game... And that's REALLY not healthy for people who like to play normals... Honestly, I think Riot will be watching Kog'maw's interaction with this item very closely because he is the champion who synergizes the best with it IMO... So, until season 3 starts, this item's stats and it's effect with Kog'maw are subject to change... On paper, right now Kog'maw is looking to be extremely powerful... In reality, we don't know yet because the item hasn't been implemented and all balancing issues haven't been resolved just yet... It works on Kog'maw too well, as shown by the math... It would make most other AD carries lack-luster compared to Kog'maw, which is bad from the game... I feel like I'm repeating myself a lot here, So i'm not going to keep typing

  • #50 370HSSV

    One problem with those numbers is that you're completely ignoring resistances. For example ADC Kog'maw typically has something like 46%+6 armor penetration mid/lategame, but the on-hit effect deals magic damage. And by buying the new item instead of PD, you're making bigger portion of your damage magic damage. Assuming average target has around 100 MR and armor, it'd mean 100 magic damage is only worth roughly 75 physical damage.

    It still seems like a great item for Kog'Maw, but it's slightly worse than those numbers make it look like. I'm pretending to be working atm so I didn't do any math, but instead of that 2.05x damage maybe it's "only" 1.9x damage. It's not a big difference, but still something you should mention.

    Last edited by 370HSSV: 11/15/2012 7:34:13 AM
  • #51 MerryLane

    Kogmaw rarely (never) enjoys a last whisper, he shouldn't get 46 pct arp.

    Anyway if you seem to forget it, a huge part of kogmaw's damage is magical anyway.

    Here GG just speculated the "unmodified" flat dps that some champions can hope having with the incoming item.
    We can't yet theorize on the best build path to optimize these champions's DPS because we don't know yet every data, such as masteries remake, PD's nerf, the cost of the new items, how the purchase of MR/Armor will be affected (in cost and build path), ...

    We are just saying "omg this item seems obviously stupidly broken as hell"

  • #52 370HSSV

    Quote from MerryLane »

    Kogmaw rarely (never) enjoys a last whisper, he shouldn't get 46 pct arp.

    What? Of course you always buy LW on Kog unless the game ends before you get to that point. I don't think I've ever seen a (non-AP) Kog'Maw build in competitive play with 5 items completed and no LW. It's a core item in any ADCs build.

    And I'm not ignoring the fact that reasonable portion of his damage is already magic, quoting my first post "... making bigger portion of your damage magic damage". 

    Last edited by 370HSSV: 11/15/2012 8:08:56 AM
  • #54 MerryLane

    Well then most of ADC playing Kog with LW didn't understand the point of the champion.

    You can refer to previous articles from Gentleman Gustaf explaining why Kogmaw has a breakeven point so high in the amount of armor required on an ennemy, for LW not to be as useful as a PD,

    Long story short, lategame Kogmaw already hurts so much with his W that a little inch of attack speed gives him more DPS than armor penetration.

    Last edited by MerryLane: 11/15/2012 9:20:58 AM
  • #78 exacerberus

    Quote from MerryLane »

    You can refer to previous articles from Gentleman Gustaf explaining why Kogmaw has a breakeven point so high in the amount of armor required on an ennemy, for LW not to be as useful as a PD,

    Long story short, lategame Kogmaw already hurts so much with his W that a little inch of attack speed gives him more DPS than armor penetration.

    What he said. Kog doesn't need LW. OFC buying it is better than getting a crap items (all in all LW offers solid stats), but doesn't mean LW is mandatory on him. Just skip it and get more AS and Crit.

  • #79 underthemoon

    He obviously doesn't understand math, Merry, as do a lot of people in this thread. I had to facepalm when you had to explain to someone why two PDs > PD + last whisper on Kog.

  • #76 GentlemanGustaf

    Who says I didn't take into account Armor/MR? Look back at my equations and you'll see that's not the case.

  • #83 370HSSV

    I just assumed that was the case, as you didn't mention any armor/MR values in your post. My apologies. Can you tell what armor/MR/HP values you used for those numbers?

    Also wondering how range of this item will work. Will it always have the same range or will it be the same as your champion has? If it's your champion's AA range I wonder if Kog's W will also increase it's range.

    I don't quite know how I feel about this item. It feel like items like this will require many champion/skill balance changes to work as it'll be too powerful on certain champions with high damage/utility on-hit effects, yet slightly weak on most ADCs. I don't think having ~1.5x damage vs 3 opponents justifies sacrificing one fourth of your single target damage in most scenarios, as you should rarely be in range to 3 targets when positioning correctly. That loss in single target damage (and movespeed) leaves low mobility champions really vulnerable against any good dive comps.

    I guess the best way they could balance it is just to balance it for those few champions it works really well on, and let it remain useless on some/most AD carries.

    Last edited by 370HSSV: 11/16/2012 3:29:25 AM
  • #81 GentlemanGustaf

    Quote from 370HSSV »

    One problem with those numbers is that you're completely ignoring resistances. For example ADC Kog'maw typically has something like 46%+6 armor penetration mid/lategame, but the on-hit effect deals magic damage. And by buying the new item instead of PD, you're making bigger portion of your damage magic damage. Assuming average target has around 100 MR and armor, it'd mean 100 magic damage is only worth roughly 75 physical damage.

    It still seems like a great item for Kog'Maw, but it's slightly worse than those numbers make it look like. I'm pretending to be working atm so I didn't do any math, but instead of that 2.05x damage maybe it's "only" 1.9x damage. It's not a big difference, but still something you should mention.

    So, here's a quick explanation of why it's that big. PD and RH give (basically) the same AS, so let's ignore that.  You can't actually do that, but for comparing which is larger, it should create no problems. Your auto attack damage is AD*(1+CritChance*1.6). This means that every % of Crit increases your physical damage by 1.6%. The 30 % PD gives (which will be nerfed) gives you a 48% increase, and the 25% from IE gives you another 40%, for a total of 88%. RH splashes half of your AD to 2 nearby targets. That doubles your physical damage. Even without the on-hit, RH is winning, although given that you won't always be hitting three targets, if it only did that alone it would be a bad item. But it also lands the full damage of your on-hit effect on each target hit. In team fights, that will be devastating, given the strength of Kog's Passive. So you get triple your magic damage, and double your physical damage, as compared with an 88% physical damage increase.

    You can argue whatever you want about how reliable an increase is that forces you to hit three targets, or how much that benefits you over more single target damage, and that's ine, but mathematically, your overall damage is just way better.

    2.0*AD +3.0*Magic = 1.88 AD. For the left side to double the right side, 3.0*Magic needs to equal 1.76*AD, which means your Magic damage (Kog's W) needs to equal .59 times your AD. Your AD will be about 200, which means your magic damage needs to be 118 damage. Given that Kog's W does .06 times max health, that means against any three targets with an average of 1933 health or more, Hurricane will out dps PD. But then add to that resistances, which you seem to think I've neglected.

    Armor on carries will typically be 100, and MR will typically be 45. With 54% Armor Pen, Armor and MR are now about even, making them both equally good investments.

    On tankier champions, Armor will range as high as 250, and MR as high as 150. Again, with 54% Armor Pen, those numbers will be about even. Plus, on those tankier champions, health will often be a little higher as well, upping your magic damage output.

  • #47 Dharou

    Actually, the one I'm more afraid is kennen as/ad, in s3 he will be stunbot. ulti aoe stun, 3 targets attack with marks, e, profit. 2 aoe stuns in 0 time.

  • #48 Dharou

    Already responded in Q&A posts, empowered shuriken only affects one target... that makes me sad :)

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